How Green Credit Policies Reshape the Environmental Performance of High-Pollution Enterprises: Mechanism Analysis from Financing Constraints to Innovation Compensation

In the grand context of global climate governance and sustainable development transformation, the guiding role of financial instruments is becoming increasingly prominent. Green credit policy, as a key fiscal tool, is moving away from traditional resource allocation models and towards serving environmental goals in various countries. Especially in China, since the issuance of the Green Credit Guidelines in 2012, this mechanism has become one of the strategic tools for optimizing the flow of financial resources and curbing the excessive expansion of high-pollution industries.

However, translating the policy intent of green credit into actual improvements in corporate environmental performance (EP) remains a focus of attention for academia and policymakers regarding its underlying transmission mechanism. Based on panel data analysis, this study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework to examine the quantitative impact of green credit policy on the environmental performance of high-pollution enterprises. The results show that this policy intervention brought a significant improvement in environmental scores, corresponding to the reduction of millions of tons of sulfur dioxide emissions annually, directly contributing to the achievement of China's medium-term emission reduction targets.

From the perspective of mechanism analysis, the impact of green credit policy on corporate environmental performance is not singular but is composed of a complex system driven by external policies and internal organizational responses. The study reveals two core transmission paths: the first is the financing constraint mechanism. By setting green credit thresholds, the policy essentially increases the financing costs and risks for high-pollution, high-energy-consuming projects, thereby forcing enterprises to adjust their investment strategies towards more environmentally friendly technologies and operational models in the trade-off between cost and benefit.

The second is the innovation compensation mechanism. Green credit is not just a restrictive constraint but also an incentive. It provides a specific funding channel for enterprises willing to actively engage in green technological innovation and improve resource utilization efficiency, thereby transforming environmental compliance into enhanced corporate competitiveness and promoting the penetration of green technology within enterprises.

Furthermore, the study points out that this policy effect exhibits significant heterogeneity. Groups such as eastern regions, competitive industries, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) show differences in the sensitivity and responsiveness of their environmental performance when faced with green credit policies, highlighting the importance of differentiated regional policy design and precise support tailored to different industry characteristics.

From the macro perspective of global development governance, the practice of green credit provides a policy paradigm for addressing the issue of "environmental justice" in global development. It demonstrates that effective green finance is not only a market-driven efficiency tool but also a key means for governments to design policies to achieve social and environmental goals. However, challenges remain to achieve a deeper structural transformation. Ensuring that the coverage of green credit is not hindered by policy adjustments, effectively incentivizing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate in green transformation, and effectively linking enhanced environmental performance at the enterprise level with broader social equity goals are issues that require continuous deepening in future international cooperation and green finance systems. This demands that the global governance system evolve from mere resource allocation to a long-term governance framework that effectively integrates climate risks, social equity, and economic growth.